The objective is to develop a forecasting framework designed to provide medium term projections. The models relate ownership and use of vehicles to a set of socio-economic variables for a large sample of the poorest countries in the world. In addition to estimation of elasticities and other relevant parameters, some sample forecasts are produced.
Topic: 9. Vehicle Ownership
It is proposed that data at household level give the most suitable quantitative and qualitative variables for studies of car ownership in Kuwait.
The authors present a model which produces simultaneous forecasts of car holding, new car purchase and scrappage. All are sensitive to changes in income and prices. Potential car holders are individuals aged between 18 and 75.
This paper abandons the conventional reliance on household statistics, and uses as the primary dependent variable the propensity for entry to and exit from car ownership of individuals, segregated by age and sex.
Forecast saturation levels of car ownership have been much too low. But the average mileage of cars will be reduced in future by more use of public transport in cities, and by air travel and high-speed tracked transport between cities.
A shared fleet experiment in a medium-sized community provided each participating household with a small vehicle and the opportunity to call on larger vehicles when required. Gains in accessibility accrued chiefly to small lower-income households. There was a decrease of 25 per cent in total vehicle ownership.
The import of vehicles is drastically controlled because Tanzania is short of foreign exchange. The author is critical of the working of the controls.
This article criticises the bases on which trunk road schemes are evaluated by the Department of the Environment. traffic forecasts should relate car ownership to household characteristics rather than to the individual; small time savings should be ignored; by-passes should be judged on their value to the environment and not only on financial costs/benefits.
Company cars are replaced after two or three years because of the high cost of maintenance and high second-hand values. Heavier goods vehicles, buses and coaches have a longer life, and when replacement is preferred to further overhaul the reason is probably obsolescence.
Variations in car ownership between districts are accounted for by household income, household size and access to public transport. transport planning can thus influence not only modal split in the short term but future decisions by households on whether to own a car.