The Prediction of Car Ownership and Use Revisited. The Beginning of the End?

The Prediction of Car Ownership and Use Revisited. The Beginning of the End?

Forecast saturation levels of car ownership have been much too low. But the average mileage of cars will be reduced in future by more use of public transport in cities, and by air travel and high-speed tracked transport between cities.

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Modelling Vehicle Ownership and Use in Low Income Countries

The objective is to develop a forecasting framework designed to provide medium term projections. The models relate ownership and use of vehicles to a set of socio-economic variables for a large sample of the poorest countries in the world. In addition to estimation of elasticities and other relevant parameters, some sample forecasts are produced.

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