This article examines methods of predicting numbers of trips made by car and by public transport, and shows how closely the model is influenced by the size and composition of the household and by its income.
The paper argues for a public Road Authority owning the highway infrastructure and holding debt. Present provisions for private roads lead to large distortions, and are unlikely to encourage private investment.
A literature review suggests that increases in real fuel prices would lead to a short run reduction in both traffic and consumption, due to more careful driving and differential responses for different journeys. In the longer run the effects would be increased. It is suggested that non-dynamic estimation methods are biased, and that transport prices have wider effects, and are a more important lever of transport policy, than has sometimes been assumed.
