The objective is to develop a forecasting framework designed to provide medium term projections. The models relate ownership and use of vehicles to a set of socio-economic variables for a large sample of the poorest countries in the world. In addition to estimation of elasticities and other relevant parameters, some sample forecasts are produced.

The authors present a model which produces simultaneous forecasts of car holding, new car purchase and scrappage. All are sensitive to changes in income and prices. Potential car holders are individuals aged between 18 and 75.

This paper abandons the conventional reliance on household statistics, and uses as the primary dependent variable the propensity for entry to and exit from car ownership of individuals, segregated by age and sex.