The authors develop a gravity model for holiday trips in Great Britain and apply it to major road improvements projected for the South West Region. They expect well over a million extra visitors after completion of the M4 and M5.
This article examines methods of predicting numbers of trips made by car and by public transport, and shows how closely the model is influenced by the size and composition of the household and by its income.
The paper argues for a public Road Authority owning the highway infrastructure and holding debt. Present provisions for private roads lead to large distortions, and are unlikely to encourage private investment.