The objective is to develop a forecasting framework designed to provide medium term projections. The models relate ownership and use of vehicles to a set of socio-economic variables for a large sample of the poorest countries in the world. In addition to estimation of elasticities and other relevant parameters, some sample forecasts are produced.

It is proposed that data at household level give the most suitable quantitative and qualitative variables for studies of car ownership in Kuwait.

The authors present a model which produces simultaneous forecasts of car holding, new car purchase and scrappage. All are sensitive to changes in income and prices. Potential car holders are individuals aged between 18 and 75.